BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA INSTABILITY TWENTY YEARS AFTER DAYTON

The following paper has a purely notional and explanatory function of the situation of the Balkan country, sadly known for one of the bloodiest wars that broke out in Europe after the Second World War. Personal criticism will not be spared, but it won’t compromise the objectivity of the geopolitical, social and historical analysis that will distinguish this tractation.

The situation in Bosnia Herzegovina in these very last years is radically and changing political, social and international’s balances. With the Dayton agreement The International Community ended a cruel war which led to death lots of Balkan citizens and restabilized the international situation after years of war. But as we can easily notice, things are changing, and this historical agreement is going to be not actual anymore.

The Dayton’s Agreement officially formalize the intangibility of borders as the ex-Yugoslavian Republic internal division was. Therefore, Eastern Slavonia’s area is assigned to Croatia and in Bosnia Herzegovina itself is officially recognized a geographical division based on the ethnic prevalence, which is the main reason that led to the institutional decision to make Bosnia Herzegovina a federal republic. The two Bosnian areas taken in consideration are the Croatian Muslim federation and the Srpska Republic, respectively an area in which the great majority of people is recognized as Muslim and Croatian and an area in which most people ethnically recognize themselves as Serbian. And, as we know from the news, this last area taken in consideration is the one which is creating instability into the country. Dayton’s agreement was a fantastic international solution that ended a cruel and bloody war, but, as we know, the internal balances of states are continuously evolving, and international agreements must face this phenomenon.

The reason which led Bosnia Herzegovinian’s internal situation into a ticking bomb which is constantly threating to unleash a new civil war can be traced in the Austrian High representative for the International Community in Bosnia Herzegovina, Valentin Izko, imposed an amendment to the Bosnian penal code, which forbids the exaltation of Serbian war criminal as Mladic and Karadzic or the denial of the Srebrenica’s genocide, which the Srpzska Republic’s leader Milorad Dodik, a Bosnian politician currently member of the Presidency of the Bosnia Herzegovina and native of Banja Luka, capital of the Srpska republic, classified during his speeches as a great crime, but never called it with the official attribution of “Genocide”. The penalties or the infringement of this amendment can reach five years of jail detention. Because of this stance from the High Representative the Serbian leader started to promote a nationalist sentiment in Dodik’s political ideas. Moreover, because of this decision of the High Representative, the delegation of the Srpzska Republic refused to participate in any decisional procedure, causing a political stall in Bosnia Herzegovina and an increasing of the nationalist feelings in the whole Srpzska Republic population. These feelings found support in the Russian and Chinese government, that in these last months intensified contacts with Dodik and his followers, sustaining the Srpzka Republic against the post-colonial attitude of the European Union and western countries. Consequently, Milorad Dodik started a progressive detachment procedure from Sarajevo, winking at the possibility for the Srpzska Republic to be completely autonomous from the central government.

The situation in Bosnia Herzegovina started falling. Milorad Dodik embraced, as the political leader of the Social democratic party, a nationalist policy, praising the Srpska republic’s legitim belonging to Serbia. In his speech he is constantly instigating his population and supporters not to recognize Bosnia Herzegovina as their legitim identification, promoting a Philo Serbian propaganda which constantly celebrates Serbian military heroes as Ratko Mladic, who is considerate by Bosnia Herzegovina’s citizens, as war criminals.

This continuous exaltation of Serbians characters and this continuous promotion of Serbian membership of the Srpzka Republic is the main reason of the instability in Bosnia Herzegovina and is stirring up a nationalist feeling into the population that upsets many Bosnian intellectuals and politicians. At the beginning of the last November Bosnian High representative warned the international community that the country’s chances of a social and civil war in Bosnia Herzegovina are growing up day by day. Dodik’s plan is clear. Firstly, he wants to create some autonomous structures, now exclusive responsibility of the Federal State of Bosnia Herzegovina itself, as the medical agency, a crucial subject in years of pandemic. Moreover, the Bosnian leader started several police drills and started a militarization of a Srpzka Republic’s army, moving his troops near the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo.

Recently the European Union banned as “incendiary rhetoric” the Bosnian leader’s ideas. Milorad Dodik himself, during the celebration day of the Srpzka Republic, during his speech claimed another time, in front of his supporters and population, the secessionist ambitions of his region. The celebrations continued with lots of Serbian’s nationalist songs and with a parade of the armed forces. The Srebrenica massacre’s murals were disfigured. Lots of choirs in favor of the war criminal Ratko Mladic were sang by thousands of people in the principal square of Banja Luka. During the celebrations the presence of delegates from China, Russia and Serbia themselves urged Dodik to speak against the United States of America, which imposed recently new sanctions to the Srpzka Republic itself. He proudly announced that the Republic is going to be soon a new autonomous State and his speech was followed by hundreds of cheering shouts.

The consent the Bosnian leader could count on is increasing more and more and, even if Bosnian intellectuals are confident that the majority of Dodik supporters are not going to follow him into a civil war and that they are going to move to Serbia if the conflict is about to start, lots of young Bosnian new graduates are leaving the country as soon as they receive their degree. Intellectuals are stopped and insulted by Srpzka’s nationalists while they are walking down the streets and, in the area, the great majority of the flags are Serbian flags. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s flags are more unique than rare.

Last month Dodik’s party approved in the parliament of Banja Luka a resolution for the withdrawal of competences in matters of defence, justice and taxation, as reported by an article of Avvenire, an Italian journal which is following the situation in Bosnia Herzegovina very closely.

This act on behalf of the Bosnian president, leader of the republic of Serbian ethnicity of Bosnia Herzegovina was seen by many as the first act towards the autonomy of the republic itself, and by some as the point of non-return towards a point that would lead to civil war in Bosnia itself.

The fact that Chinese and Russian delegates were present in the celebration dedicated to the republic itself is also emblematic from a geo-political perspective.

The aggressive expansionist republic of China and Russia confirms the desire that both the Russian and Chinese government had to have control over that region, which would lead to have a Russian and Chinese settlement within the balcanic region, which historically was under the influence of the Soviet Union.

The Serbian government behavior itself is contradictory to say the least. On the one hand, in fact, the Serbian leader and prime minister Aleksandar Vucic has repeatedly affirmed his position in favor of a major stability of Bosnia Herzegovina’ s internal situation; on the other hand, Vucic never loses an opportunity to demonstrate his support to Dodik’s political ideas and the presence of a Serbian delegation during the Srpzka Republic celebration day is a confirm of the fact that Vucic is not secretly winking at Dodik.

The United States of America tried to intervene in their own way. The US sanctioned the Serbian leader, banning him from the United States amd freezing the whole Dodik’s American properties, but these diplomatic weapons are not as effective as they were in the past and had no effect on the leader’s behavior. Recently there was a meeting with an envoy of the US State Department, Gabriel Escobar, who tried to have a dialogue with Milorad Dodik. This dialogue was considered by the American envoy as a great step forward to the stabilization of the social situation and Dodik himself said that he was avaiable to accept to withdraw the enacted laws which were mining the central state of Bosnia Herzegovina and the two parts pledged to continue their meetings in order to find an agreement, but until now these negotiations have not yet led to anything concrete. The sanctions currently stay valid and also concern also a company controlled by the Serbian Leader himself, named Alternativna Televizija doo Banja Luka, besides some other activities that the western countries banned as “corrupt and aimed at threatening the integrity of Bosnia Herzegovina itself”.

Moreover, as all of us know, the European Union cannot concretely help Bosnia Herzegovina, as, even if the country asked to enter into the Union, his political and juridical situation prevent the country from acquiring the aquis comunitario, which is a condicio sine qua non the country itself can ask for his entrance in the Union itself. Even if Bosnia Herzegovina’s territory is easily considerable an European area, the internal situation of the country prevent it to be able to grant peace, democracy and the respect of Human rights, the so known political condition, not to mention the impossibility either for the juridical system of the country is not able to comply with European regulations or for granting the freedom of competition in the market, respectively the juridical and the economic condition. In order to be able to acquire the aquis comunitario Bosnia Herzegovina should implement many political, juridical and economic reforms, which would take the country years for just being able to ask for their entrance in the European Union. That leaves the country in a situation of abandonment which convinced Dodik himself to begin his dialogues with Vladimir Putin. Dodik affirmed that Putin, unlike European and western leaders, can hear his reasons and because of this behavior Putin gained Dodik’s respect. In an interview with an Italian journalist from La Repubblica Dodik confirm his wondering of giving an army to the Srpska Republic, as foreseen by the Bosnian constitution itself, even if he ensures that the secession of the Srpzka Republic is not in his plans yet, but as the Sarajevo government is not going to solve some crucial political and social problems the secession could be a solution. This contradiction cannot be seen as positive from the European Union and from the United States of America themselves, but in the same interview Dodik explains his own vision of the European Union, defining the European Union “the power’s arrogance”. Dodik says that it is not possible anymore allow non-Bosnian people to force Bosnia Herzegovina to adopt laws. And that is, in his eyes, the difference between the European leaders and Vladimir Putin’s modus agendi.

The constant increasing of Serbian nationalism, within the above analyzed reasons, leads to a rising social tension within the state, which could dangerously lead to a civil war if the Serbian nationalist movement and the leader of the republic itself would not radically change their opinions and intents.

But it is not the only case in which a shortage of a common nationalist spirit is causing tensions into the country between two different ethnic groups. In Kosovo, in fact, as it is known there are lots of tensions between Albanian Kosovars and Serbian Kosovars. These tensions are driving the country adrift and caused the incrimination of the actual president of the Republic of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci himself, with the president of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, Kadri Veseli, swooping down the country into a dangerous political and social crisis, which is added to the above summarized instabilities in Bosnia Herzegovina, making the Balkan area a hot geopolitical theater and a potential ticking bomb ready to radically upset the whole geopolitical system of balances. And in this other scenario the Serbian Government is another time an interested observer, as one of the two factions in Kosovo are of Serbian ethnicity. Dialogues between the Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic and Hashim Thaci were dense in the weeks before Thaci’s incriminations and both of the presidents said that a solution between Serbian and Albanian should be found in order to stabilize the area, as the two ethic groups are the very majority of Balkan’s area. During the negotiations the parts analyzed the hypothesis to separate Kosovo between Serbia and Albania, but that’s much more difficult as Kosovo is an official candidate for entering in the European Union and the Union itself invested lots of money in the acquisition process of the aquis comunitario by Kosovo and it seems very difficult to believe that the European Union could accept this solution. Moreover Kosovo, with an unilateral act decided to adopt the euro, bonding more and more his political situation to the European Union itself. We have also to report that the dialogues between Serbia and Kosovo, which are intended to find an agreement in order to stabilize the Kosovar area registered an impasse which cannot be positive and that find justification in Serbian interests in staying in an ambiguous role, as Serbia is the landmark for all Serbians in Kosovo and Bosnia Herzegovina as well, while the government declarations are completely in favor of a balancing of the geopolitical situation in the Balkan area. This official places Serbia in the graces of the European Union as an important ally for the stabilization of the area, while the Serbian government continues his winking to Dodik’s nationalist movement in the Bosnia Herzegovina and Srpzka Republic’s situation and in the Kosovo’s situation as well, making the Serbian President itself, due to his alliances with Russia and Hungary, the most important landmark for the future of these geopolitical issues.

The Dayton agreements were revolutionary and brought an end to a war that went on for three long years and lead to thousands of deaths. It was a fundamental agreement for the equilibrium of Balkan geo-politics, but if there is no modification of these agreements, conceding independence of the republic itself, there would be the risk of underlying the stability of the region itself.

This makes us realize that international agreements that were stipulated many years ago, although still important, cannot be definitively crystallized from a legal standpoint, because law is destined to change with the flowing of time and with the changing of social conditions that can be verified.

We need to comprehend the idea that, every certain number of years, we need to review the agreements to confirm them or eventually modify them in a conservative sense because of international political equilibrium.

Even though Bosnia-Herzegovina is an important cushion for the equilibrium of the Balkans, it would be catastrophic to have a civil war between the two factions.

All of this would give the justification to Russia and China to intervene militarily and to use their intervention as negotiable power to stabilize the region, giving them a major power that is not to be underestimated as it would allow them to deal with the United States of America with a much higher power of negotiation than currently.

This drastic change of international geopolitical equilibrium, potentially will bring to a problematic of international politics that would no longer regard the Balkans but the whole world, bringing Russia and China, recently allied from an economic standpoint and military, to fight with each other and go against the European Union and the western world entirely as specified in the airliner paragraph to drastically modify the equilibrium from an economic standpoint of the entire world,

All of this can be ascertained if we are able to find a way to stay and keep up with the ongoing changes from a social and political standpoint that characterize humanity and frankly the entire western world.

As mentioned earlier, a potential solution could be to modify every ten years for example the international agreements that effectively result to be on paper improved from a change of a social standpoint.

Another idea could potentially be to give the possibility of a number of people represented by certain subjects and political leaders to ask the international community and the European Union a modification of the agreements and to continually review these findings, which could effectively bring to chaos and anarchy of a geo-political and ethnic and military perspective.

We must forget the idea that what has been written on these agreements cannot be changed and must be left in time because from a human perspective we can’t afford believe that everything will always stay the same and last in eternity.

There will always be constant changes and continuous modifications as our history demonstrates.

Overall, these international relations as a whole are constantly evolving and our objective should be to monitor the changes, apply new modifications when convenient and where possible but also, without a shadow of doubt, to bear in mind that we must maintain existing standings and standards that are functional and that are maintaining an international status quo that is a positive one and that has an impact on humanity that leads to peace, progressivism and overall international diplomacy.

There have been multiple examples throughout the course of history that demonstrate the use of modifying past legislation in favor of more progressive and idealistic principles that lead to positive change.

Moreover, Millard Dodik’s speeches and nationalist ideals are fomenting more and more the internal divisions between the two federal states which are part of the Bosnia and Herzegovina’s federal republic. These dangerous speeches and ideas are mining the union of the states more and more, and the danger of potential terrorist attacks are growing more and more, becoming more actual the threat of a civil war in the country itself. We cannot afford a new humanitarian crisis in

the Balkan area, as the population is still destroyed by the last Balkan wars. We cannot let this happen again.

Article by Silvio Lulaj

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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